http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061126/ap_on_he_me/be_happy

Thought I would pass along this article. Seems to have some value.

Soccer

This is an EMail I sent to all the guys on my Tuesday soccer team. A funny thing to keep in mind while reading is that I met all of these people 2 months ago and they have all know eachother for years, so they might think I am a little psycho to be this excited about our mens league soccer teams playoff chances. A lot of them seem to be as into as me though, so its probably fine. I showed up for our game tonight but we won by forfeit, I missed the email so was there with no game to play.



Whats up guys,

Some good news to kick off the holiday weekend...I ended up going to the field tonight, scrimmaged for the hour of our game and then decided to stick around for the first few minutes and watch Salvatore Ferragamo play Rebels. We needed Salvatore to win to allow us to control our own destiny for a playoff spot. Well I got sucked into what ended up being a really good game. Both teams were playing very tough and very good soccer. Salvatore ended up winning by 2 goals late (despite a red card), which is huge for our playoff bid.

Now we are alone in 2nd place in our 8 team league with 18 points and 1 game to go. (Moody has 24, Rebels has 16, Clippers have 15 and Salvatore has 14) If we beat Foreign Legion next week we are in the playoffs (only 2 teams are guarenteed from our league)

Now for the minor bad news...I also caught the end of Foreign Legions game and they looked a lot tougher than I had remembered, seems like maybe they have all their players now and looked pretty decent beating whoever they played. (Obviously we can and will still beat them).
Anyways figured I would pass this news along, hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving...

Jesse

Hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving...

Line Move

Cleveland moved to -4 on mansion...I like

NFL Week 11

I bet 2 games this week on Mansion. I like them both a decent amount. Here they are

CLEVELAND vs Pittsburg+3.5 (+102) - Especially with no vig here I like this a good amount. Cleveland is a scrappy team with good coaches and they have a good chance to win this game. Pittsburg is not this much better than Cleveland to deserve being more than a field goal favorite on the road.

MIAMI vs Minnesota -3 (-106) - I like the value here. 2 teams going in different directions. Miami did the same thing last year coming on strong in the second half of the season with a lot of covers. Minnesota is going in the wrong direction.

I may try to write more later, but I am writing this at a friends house just to try to get this in.

BTW, Denver looks decent too but I really dont think I can bet against LT 2 weeks in a row

I love the fall in the North East (NFL WEEK 11)

Last week my NFL picks were a bit of disaster going only 1-2. Coming off a great first week of posting NFL picks I felt obligated to catch lightning in the bottle again. I felt ok about my picks, but I guess I didnt have the same feel as I did the week before.

This week could be even worse because I didnt even get to watch the NFL this past weekend. I was at Foxwoods playing the 10K Main Event. I lasted kind of far into the marathon Day 1, but alas lost 2 coinflips and was BUSTO. Not too much interesting happened in the tournament. I played one semi-interesting hand vs Matt Mattros that I could write about at a later date. I thought the tournament structure was pretty horrible. 75 minute levels in a 10K event is ridiculous especially when u are skipping levels left and right. 20K starting chips seems to be all the rage right now, but it is really just a mirage when the structure ends up like it did at Foxwoods. For the most part the staff is miserable to deal with there also. No wonder I live 2 hours away from Foxwoods but only go there once a year.


Now I am back in NYC enjoying the ridiculously good weather we continue to get. My life pretty much now revolves around playing sports and I love it. It feels like high school again. I am on 2 soccer teams at Chelsea Piers and also have started a ritual of Saturday Morning-Afteroon touch football with my friends here. The soccer teams are in competive leagues and the football is incredibly fun.

THe Tuesday night soccer teams record is at 5 wins 3 losses after a gritty 4-3 win this week that I scored 2 goals in. We play in an 8 team league and 2 make the playoffs (In the playoffs u combine with all the other Division one teams from other nights). We are in some trouble though as the 1st team is 8-0 and then the team in second is 5-2-1. They (The Sinners) are gonna have to lose or tie one of there last 2 games. to give us a shot.

The second team I am on plays in Division 2 which is a less talented league. Our team has really come together in this league. We are 6-2 and control our own destiny to make the playoffs. I have become one of the stars of the team which has been a lot of fun. Tonight we play "12 Angry Men", a team that has been real hot as of late after starting slow. Its going to be a very tough game. The game starts at 11 PM which I think helps me a lot because I can adjust my sleeping schedule to be ready for the game and I am used to being up late on weekdays. I hope to have a huge game and carry the team to a win.

If u live in NYC and want to get involved in team sports they have everything at Chelsea Piers, it is really amazing. Check out the site. Also for any big fans of semi competitive adult soccer teams/players, if u navigate around u can find the standings for my soccer league. I play on Equinox Warriors Division 1 on Tuesdays and BallStars Division 2 on Thursdays.

http://chelseapiers.com/

As for the football, well if u dont play touch football every Saturday morning with your friends u are really missing out. I look back at the last 2 years and cant believe we didnt do this the whole time I have been in NY. Everyone looks forward to it all week. The games are a perfect mix of competive, but not too competive. Last week my buddy Andrew and I were paired on the same team and we made a pretty ridiculous QB-WR tandem. I would venture to say it was my best performance playing football ever as I pretty much caught every ball thrown my way all day, and put up some monster fantasy numbers.

One last thing that I have recently really been into is Sirius Radio, especially Howard Stern. I have a subscription now and can listen to all of Sirius radios channels on the internet. The Stern show is better than ever, and it is amazing to listen to while playing poker online. Everyone on the show is so fun to listen to, so real. Also with Sirius now u can listen to the show all day instead of having to wake up at 6 if u want to hear the whole show. The guests they get on are amazing and Howard is a brilliant talent. I suggest Sirius to anyone, probably a great holiday season gift for the right person also.




NFL

For now I dont have any real picks. The games I have narrowed it down to are...

Cinci +3
Cleveland +3
Miami -3
Jets +7
Denver -2.5

I am gonna try to do some real study at some point and get 2 or 3 picks that I feel great about. If I post something later its gonna be solid

NFL Week 10

OK here is what I have taken so far. I might add some things later. I feel pretty good about what I have going at this point.

All the lines are from Mansion. Some are changing fast

(Home team in CAPS)

BENGALS (+1.5) over San Diego

Line opened at 1, obviously the half point isnt a huge deal but its a nice bonus and shows that the public is on San Diego. I dont see why Cinci cant win this game at home. They have played a tough schedule and this year so 4-4 isnt that terrible of a record and this is the make or break game of their season. I see Cinci scoring some points and winning this game to stay alive in the AFC race.

STEELERS (-4) over New Orleans

New Orleans seems to be going the wrong way, and as I have mentioned Pittsburg has not quit yet. They have too much pride and a great coach. Most smart people I know like Pittsburg, but the public (read : dumb people) is still in love with the Saints, driving the opening line from 5 to 4. I would like this game even more with Batch playing over Big Ben, but Ben should be ok at home.

VIKINGS (-5) over Green Bay

Just gonna echo what I wrote yesterday...I think Minnesota will be able to reclaim there offense at home. Green Bay has the lowest rated passing defense in the NFL which really helps the Vikings, maybe there below average recievers can actually get open this week. The old gambling rule of never betting against Brett Farve has really switched to, "bet against Brett Farve on the road in most spots. "

I am still looking in to this Detroit vs San Fran game...I think I like Detroit and u can still get it at 5.5 on Mansion but its 6 almost everywhere else. I think its a decent pick, but not gonna fully back it yet

NFL

Last week went well with the picks. I won 4 out of the 5 games. Enough people expressed mild intrest in the post that I will try to make this a weekly feature.

I think I will make an official picks post later, but a few games I am looking at and might take right now are included here.

Any Input is appreciated...Remember these are just early ideas

CINCI (+1.5) vs Ravens - (Also Cinci money line seems good here), I think they are good enough to win this game at home.

VIKINGS (-5) vs Green Bay - I think Minnesota will be able to reclaim there offense at home. Green Bay has a real bad pass defense and as mentioned last week, Farve just makes too many mistakes these days.

DETROIT (-5.5) vs 49ers - I dont have a great feel for how San Fran is playing and maybe I am underrating them. I do know that Detroit has an above average NFL offense with flat out stars in Kevin Jones and Roy Williams. Seems like Detroit is decent value here

PITT (-4) vs New Orleans - The public is on New Orleans here, but most people I have talked about or read who actually know a thing or 2 about the NFL like Pittsburg a lot here. The Steelers wont quit on the season yet, this is a game they might start to show some life.



Other games I had a small feeling about but probably wont touch

Cardinals +7 or 7.5...public is all over Dallas, if the line is 7.5 which I think it could end up being I think Zona could be a small value pick

KC to beat Miami on the money line

Bears +3 if u can get it, but a lot of places it is down to 2.5

Titans +7...meh, but home dog against the public etc

NFL Week 9

So I was sitting in the shower thinking, wow I have some expert football picks this week. I only bet $100 a game on football usually though. This combination of information made me sad, because I am obv gonna win all my bets but $500 dollars wont really mean all that much to me. What WOULD make me happy would be the respect and admiration of all my peers.

SOLUTION : Post My picks on my blog in advance so everyone (Or atleast Matt, Shane and Glenn) will be able to realize my genius once I sweep the NFL this weekend.

I made all my picks on Mansion. Here is what I took with a brief explanation

Drumroll please.....

(Home Teams in CAPS)

BUFFALO -3 (-110) over Green Bay

Line opened at 3.5, public is all over Green Bay. Buffalo has a solid record the last few years covering at home, Farve is due for a few picks.

JACKSONVILLE -9.5 (-106) over Tennessee

Another line move. Opened at 10, maybe went down to 9.5 because the QB questionables, but Gerard IMO is just as good for the Jags as Leftwich. Jacksonville is underrated by the public each week.

ST. LOUIS -2.5 (-107) over Chiefs

This is more of a value pick. I think the line should be 3 or 3.5. St. Louis still is atleast equal or better than the Chiefs. Rams know they need this game to stay on track for the playoffs and they play well at home historically

REDSKINS +3 (+104) over Dallas

Check the price I got. Again a value pick, especially getting paid 4 bucks to make it. This is a classic game I like though. Has all the variables. A HOME DOG and a division game AND the public is ALL OVER Dallas. Seems +EV to me, certainly no lock.

Denver +3 (-107) over PITTSBURG

I dont love this pick, but I already made it. I think it is enough value to justify though. Denver flat out has the better team this year. I think this line should be closer to 1 than 3. The only thing that scares me here is that usually when lines look weird like this Vegas has thought it through and sees something we dont see, so I'd be careful here.


Those are my picks and I'm sticking to em. Heres to another classic NFL weekend